tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3730695365543168275.post8177597892837273719..comments2010-10-16T10:02:56.324-07:00Comments on Careless Calculations: Is the NFL Betting Market Efficient?The Unrepentant Gunnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00668789171974586727noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3730695365543168275.post-51875296560425097602010-10-16T10:02:56.324-07:002010-10-16T10:02:56.324-07:00The results so far of the Hilton Contest are prett...The results so far of the Hilton Contest are pretty much perfectly in line with a random sample of 25 selections from 350ish contestants with a 50/50 chance of hitting each.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3730695365543168275.post-89582572328406442612010-10-15T21:05:28.001-07:002010-10-15T21:05:28.001-07:00as an aside, i am aware of a few flaws already wit...as an aside, i am aware of a few flaws already with my own work, but I don't get 2 hours free consecutively to write, so i braindumped as much as i could.<br /><br />the biggest flaw is of course that the prior years maybe the most efficient picks were truly 57-58%, and not 54% or so, in which case fezzik's results aren't so unusual. i didnt do that math.<br /><br />what i also didnt do and would need help on is a looking at the standings of the other top guys in hojo's calculations. specifically, how did they do over the past two years.<br /><br />lastly, this year has been brutal for "the smart money". if this trend continues, a bad year 3 could be a pretty damn swift mean reversion. so i will try to update this in 3 months and see if it's still valid.<br /><br />overall thanks to themoneyline journal for finally prompting me to make my first real blog post, and not just email people privately my findings on thingsThe Unrepentant Gunnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00668789171974586727noreply@blogger.com